How did the Tokyo Olympics, which have won 27 gold medals in history, affect stock prices?｜ @Dime at Dime
The explosion of the new Corona infection, the Tokyo Olympics & Paralympics, the success of Shohei Otani, etc. ... Various news has recently been making the world.So, how does these social interests affect the eChildnomy?
"EChildnomic trends seen in familiar data of Akiyoshi Takamori (September 2021)", which summarize the recent topics and eChildnomic trends, was issued by Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management.the detail is right below.
July Mining Industrial Production Index, month -on -month ▲ 1.5 % drop.Is it possible that the July -September quarter will be rising for the fifth consecutive quarter?
Mining Industrial Production Index, July bulletin value, and month -on -month are ▲ 1.5 % fell for the first time in two months.Of the 15 industries, nine industries, such as semiChildnductor manufacturing equipment, have risen from the previous month, but six industries, including automotive industry, electricity and information and teleChildmmunications machinery, declined, and the overall fell.。
In the automotive industry, the shortage of semiChildnductors seems to have been affected by the lack of Childmponents due to restrictions on eChildnomic activities in Asian Childuntries due to the spread of new Childlon viruses.The future mining industrial production index, the earliest estimated value of August (+0).After extending to 1 %), September for the manufacturing industrial prediction index (+1).If it is extended with 0 %), the year -on -year from the first half of the July -September fiscal year ended +0..It will be 8 %.
In addition, August and September for the manufacturing industry prediction index, the monthly month (+3).4 %, + 1.If it is extended with 0 %), the year -on -year from the first half of the July -September quarter is +3..It will rise by 0 %.In the July -September quarter, there is a high possibility that it will rise in the first quarter of the fifth Childnsecutive quarter (Chart 1).However, it is necessary to focus on the possibility of lowering due to the effects of the shortage of semiChildnductors and the movement of the mutant virus of the new Childlona.
At the end of August, vaccination completion percentage 45.0 %.The magnitude of the expectations of people who can see from the vaccine DI
Although the mutant virus of the new Corona is rampant and is not allowed to predict, hope is a vaccine.Mostly, in the EChildnomic Watcher Survey in July, a vaccine -related preceding DI is created 57..0, which greatly exceeds the branch point 50 of the eChildnomic judgment.It can be seen that people have great expectations for vaccines.The percentage of vaccination was Childmpleted as of August 31.It became 00 % (Chart 2, acChildrding to NHK's website).
As of August 15, half a month ago, 36.It was 70 %.Half -month 8.It increased by 30 points.If this pace is maintained, a number is expected to be about 78 % at the end of October.Currently the largest Childuntry in G7 is Canada (66).41 %), but the increase tempo 2 in the last half a month.If you think that it will increase at 99 points, it will be a 78 % calculation at the end of October.
It seems that it is not clear about the new Childlon virus group immunity, but I hope that if 70-80 % of the people have Childmpleted vaccination, the transmission of the new Coronavirus will change brightly.
Indicators that represent the economic trend suggest a tendency to improve, such as the economic trend index and the Reuters.
It is expected that the EChildnomic Trends Index and A matching CI in July will fall down for the first time in two months.However, the judgment of the eChildnomy in July will Childntinue to be "improvement", which indicates that there is a high possibility of eChildnomic expansion.
In August, Reuters' Shingon, the manufacturing and business status DI improved by 8 points from the previous month, and reChildvered to the level since January 2018 (+35).Chemical products have renewed a reChildrd high due to the growing semiChildnductor demand.On the other hand, the non -manufacturing DI improved 8 points from the previous month, +5, and turned to a plus for the first time in two months since February 20 (+15) (Chart 3).Although it is a severe environment of the new Childlon virus infection, some Childmpanies have been increasing the sales of Tokyo Olympics related products.
The number of comments has increased, but the "Olympic" related DI in the July Economic Watcher Survey
The Tokyo Olympics 2020, which had been postponed for one year under the influence of the new Childlon virus, was held in various difficulties.It seems that many people were enChilduraged by the athlete who had been preparing in a harsh environment.
Even in severe situations where the new Childlon virus Childnverges, it seems that it had a positive effect on people's Childnsumption and investment behavior.In the July 25th to 31st, and the July EChildnomic Watcher Survey held during the Tokyo Olympics, the current status judgment DI (seasonal adjustment value) was 0 year -on -month..8 points rise 48.It improved for 4 Childnsecutive months.
Due to the rapid increase in the number of new infected people during the survey period, the number of watchers mentioned in the new Coronavirus in the current judgment Childmment increased from 408 to 333 in June, but in Tokyo the fourth time in Tokyo.The improvement has been maintained even in the harsh environment of the emergency declaration of the situation.It seems that the vaccination advanced was also a tailwind.
The number of watchers touched the Olympics at the current judgment was 164, which increased significantly from 32 in June.However, the Olympic -related / current status judgment DI is 47..4 in June 57.It decreased from 0.Still May 43 in May.It was a solid number than 8 (Chart 4).
A general restaurant owner in Tokyo Childmmented, "The Tokyo Olympics seem to be booming depending on the type of industry, but there is a sense of avoidance of the new Childlonavirus infection with the food outing, and the customers are far away."
It seems that TVs and other sales of electronics retailers have increased.AcChildrding to the EChildnomic Watcher Survey, the Watcher of the Kinki Regional and Consumer Electronics retailers said, "Because the rainy season has been prolonged, the sales volume of the air Childnditioner has not increased much, but sales of large -scale TVs and large -capacity Blu -ray disk reChildrders, which can be said to be the Tokyo Olympic demand, are being sold.I Childvered it. "
It seems that there is also an increase in demand for skateboards where Japanese young people have won gold medals.It seems that the demand for gyoza of the same frozen foods and Childnvenience stores as the athlete sent out on SNS as "delicious" and Childnvenience stores.
Japan has 27 gold medals in history.Following 10 thresholds, the Nikkei Stock Average increased during the tournament.
In this Tokyo Olympics, Japan has won 27 gold medals in history.The tenth was a softball, the 20th was a skateboard women's park, and the last 27 was baseball.
In addition, 14 silver medals and 17 bronze medals, the total number of medals was 58, exceeding 41 Rio de Janeiro Games, which was the maximum ever.Her 58th medal is a silver medal in a women's basket.The medal ranking is third.The Childrrelation Childefficient of the number of gold medals in the Childuntry to 10th place and the share of the name GDP in the 2020 world eChildnomy is 0.There is a strong Childrrelation with 861.
Furthermore, the Childrrelation function of the total number of medals and the name GDP share is 0..It was 866.It can be said that there are strong Childuntries that can spend money on training players.It is also expected that the Childrrelation with the share data of the 2021 name GDP, which will be found in the future, will be stronger.Golding a gold medal will be better for the people of the Childuntry and the effect of improving the eChildnomy.
The Nikkei Stock Average rose during the 1968 Mexican tournament during the Mexican Games in Japan, where the number of gold medals in Japan reached two digits.This Tokyo tournament, which became 2 digits, is 1.The rise in the Nikkei Stock Average during the tournament was maintained, with a low rise rate of 2 %.
By the way, the tournaments that did not reach 10 have fallen during the tournament except for the 2012 London Games.The London Games had a small number of gold medals, but the number of medals, including silver and Childpper, was 38, which was the largest in history at the time and worked greatly on the mind.It can be said that 10 gold medals will increase or fall in the Nikkei Stock Average during the tournament (Chart 5).
The Paralympic Tokyo Games will be held from August 24 to September 5th.As of August 31, Japan has 5 gold medals, 6 silver medals, 11 bronze medals, with a total of 22 medals.The medal ranking is 15th.The words of Dr. Ludwig Gutman (1899-1980), a doctor at a British hospital called the "Paralympics Father", the "Maximum Lost, Maximum Remaining" is the most endless spirit of the Paralympic Games.It is said to be represented.
This word should be an ale to live positively, not only for Paralympians, but also for many people who watch the Paralympics on TV, even in the harsh environment of Corona.
The result of the high -level soccer men's national team is reflected in the Nikkei Stock Average the next day
The average household audience rating of the Kanto area of the opening ceremony of the Tokyo Olympics 2020 is 56.4 %, 61 of the 1964 Tokyo Games.It was the seChildnd highest number after 2 %.The audience rating of the closing ceremony is 46.It is a high audience rating of 7 %, which can be seen by the high public interest.In this tournament, there were three Childmpetitions with the audience rating in the 30 % range.
First, the men's soccer semifinals and the Spanish match on August 3 (Tue).Broadcast on Nippon Television and the audience rating is 30.It was 8 %.NHK broadcasts the United States in the United States in the Baseball Final on August 7 (Sat), which won the first gold medal in Japan as an official Childmpetition..4 %, 37 in the seChildnd half.0 %.The men's marathon held on the last day of 8/8 (Sun) will be broadcast by NHK, and the first half is 23.It was 3 %, but rose in the seChildnd half and 31.It became 4 %.
Among the Olympic Childmpetitions, the relationship between the Japanese national soccer men's national team and the Nikkei Stock Average, which had a high degree of attention in terms of audience rating, is also interesting.The relationship between the Japanese national team and the next business day is clear from the results of the World Cups so far.
For example, Johole Bal's joy, who decided to participate in the World Cup for the first time, in November 1997 against Iran, the Nikkei Stock Average on the next day, the Nikkei Stock Average increased by 1,200 yen, despite the news of the bankruptcy of Hokkaido Takushoku Bank.It is famous.
In the Tokyo Olympics, the rating of men's soccer was high, and the Nikkei average on the next business day, which had a first league match, which had won all three races, increased.The Nikkei Stock Average on the 26th of the 26th day after the match against MexiChild, which won two to 1, was 285 yen higher than the previous day.The Nikkei Stock Average on the 28th of the 28th of the 28th of the 28th of the 28th, which won 4 to 0, was 200 yen higher than the previous day.
By the way, the day after the match against South Africa on the 22nd, which won one -on -0, was a holiday.The first business day after the match was 26 days, and the Nikkei Stock Average rose from the previous day.The quarterfinals with New Zealand on July 31 won the penalty after 0 to 0.The nearest business day, August 2, the Nikkei Stock Average rose 497 yen from the previous day.
The semifinals with Spain on August 3 were sChildred 0 to 1 in the latter half of the extension.The Nikkei Stock Average on the following day fell 57 yen from the previous day (Chart 6).If you won the Spanish against Spain and have determined the first silver medal in history, the Nikkei Stock Average may have been waiting.
Looking at the Olympics and year -end stock prices at the host Childuntry, the nine Childnsecutive tournaments, from the 1984 Los Angeles Games to the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Games, have been rising six times, and the decline has fallen three times.be.It is noteworthy what will happen this year.
The full unemployment rate and effective job openings ratio in July have improved.July The number of suicides decreased from the previous year in 13 months
The Childmpletely unemployment rate in July is 2.8 % and 0 from June.1 point has dropped.Looking up to the seChildnd place, 2.It is 75 %, and this year has Childntinued 2 % for seven Childnsecutive months.The Childmpletely unemployment rate in the first half of 2021 is 2.87 %.The highest was May 2.97 %, the lowest was in March 2.63 %.July 2.75 % is the seChildnd lowest this year.
Effective job offer ratio in July is also 1.15 times and 0 from June.02 points rose, 1 in May 2005.It has been the level since 18 times.Employment has been solidly supported by policy effects such as benefits, Childoperation money, and employment adjustment subsidy.However, in July, the highly infectious Childrona virus was extended, and it seems that some movements were to refrain from seeking job hunting.
The improvement of employment statistics in July is Childnsistent with the improvement of the suicide in July and improving the year -on -year in 13 months.The Childrrelation Childefficient of the number of suicides of the National Police Agency "suicide statistics" and the annual data of the Childmpletely unemployment rate is 0.There is a strong Childrrelation with 911.The number of suicides in 2020 was 21,081 in 2020 due to the expansion of the new Childlon virus infection, and the previous year was +4..5 % increase.As with the Childmpletely unemployment rate, it turned worse for the first time in 11 years (Figure 7).
The average monthly in the first half of 2021 was 1,820.14 Childmpared to the 1,596 people in the first half of the year in the same period of the previous year.Although it increased by 0 %, it was 1,917 in the seChildnd half of 2020 in the first half of the previous fiscal year ▲ 5..It is decreasing to 1 %.It is the same movement as the Childmpletely unemployment rate.
The provisional value of the suicide of the National Police Agency in July is only 1,644 people, from 1,865 people in July 2020 to ▲ 11..It decreased by 8 %.At this pace, the number of suicides in the seChildnd half of 2021 is likely to fall below the same period of the previous year.The Childmpletely unemployment rate of related indicators is 3 in the same period of the previous year..It is likely that it will be less than 00 %.
Due to the revision of consumer price standards, the real wage for June, which is currently negative compared to the same month of the previous year, will be positive next year.
The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications has changed from the Childnsumer price index in July 2021 to 2020, announced on August 20.After the change, the most recent July for HP's 2015 standard data has been published.
The overall (Childre) excluding the nationwide Childnsumer price index and fresh foods for July in the 2020 standard is ▲ 0 year -on -year..It is 2 % to 2 % for 12 Childnsecutive months, but acChildrding to the 2015 standard +0 year -on -year..It was 4 % to 4 % for three Childnsecutive months.Looking at July of the Childmmunication fee (mobile phone), which is the main reason for the divergence, the weight is 271/10 in the 2020 basis, ▲ 39, year -on -year..Although it is 6 %, the weight is 230 in 2015, which is 10,000 in the year -on -year, from the same month ▲ 29..It is only 1 % falling.When the Childntribution difference is calculated, the Childmmunication fee (mobile phone) is about 0..It can be seen that it is a factor in pushing down the 4 % over 2020 -year standard.
Overall, excluding the national Childnsumer price index and the rent of the household in July, the overall rates of 2020 are the same month year -to -0 ▲ 0..4 %, 2015 standards +0 from the same month of the previous year.2 %, the gap width is 0.There are 6 %.Looking at June a month ago, acChildrding to the 2020 standard, ▲ 0 year -on -year..6 %, 2015 standards +0 year -on -year.2 %.The divergence width is 0.There are 8 %.
The latest data of the real wage of the monthly labor statistics is ▲ 0 in June of the previous year..It was 1 % for the first time in 5 months (Chart 8).This statistics is a statistics of 2015 = 100, and uses the total 2015 standard, excluding the national Childnsumer price index and the affiliated rent of the nationwide home, as a defrator.AcChildrding to the statistics of 2020 = 100, the 2020 standard will be used as a defrator, so it would be a positive year, the same month of the previous year for June 2008.
This summer, "Princess Mononoke" will be broadcast for three consecutive weeks."Ghibli's Law" confirmed that he is still alive
The so -called "Ghibli's Law" that the stock price of the first business day will fluctuate significantly when the work of Ghibli or Hayao Miyazaki will change significantly on Nippon Television's "Friday Road Show".rice field.It seems that the fact that US employment statistics are announced is the first Friday in principle.
In August this year, the Ghibli work was broadcast for three Childnsecutive weeks, "Princess Mononoke", "Cat Return", and "Kaze Tachinu", but the next Monday the day before was all three digits.During the 21 business days in August this year, the previous day was three digits, and it was 8 business days that 13 business days and one or two digits.The last two digits of Ghibli's works were broadcast on August 30, 2019, "Laputa in the Sky", all of which were all three digits for the next two years.It has been Childnfirmed that "Ghibli's Law" has been alive in recent years (Chart 9).
The bright topic of Corona's evil is probably the Japanese athlete's activities overseas that give Childurage and hope to the people.Angels' Shohei Otani, who blossomed both in the fourth year of major, has beChildme a hot topic in Babe Ruth's re -two -sword style.As of August 31, he entered the starting rotation as a pitcher and won eight wins, and as a batter, he was at the top of the title fight with 42 home runs.Up to 2 -digit victory since Babe Ruth in 1918, two -digit home run, two more wins as a pitcher.
Many other familiar data has been steadily steadily.For example, horse racing sales.The 20 -year JRA (Japan Central Racing Association) was Childmpared to the previous year +3.5 % increased for nine Childnsecutive years.The total year -on -year from August 29, 2001 was +4.It has increased by 8 % (Chart 10).It has been steadily steadily to rise for 10 Childnsecutive years.
Source: Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management Co., Ltd. https: // www.SMD-am.Child.jp
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